Is anything worst, in the stock speculation, than the hope ?

Situation: I’m holding big position of BAATELEC (CR KOBOS) bought at +- 518 CZK

1) Everything is fine, trend going up fine. At the 12. 9. 2008 will be payed a large amount of dividend (50 CZK to every single stock in price of 5xx CZK), so it "must" go up. I analyzed last few years around the dividend day and will sell before dividend day and buy after it, this will give me a nice profit. The price cross the trendline! If i was robot, or good trader, i was sell… I NOT Sell. What a mistake! I not sell because if i sell at this price, i will sell without any profit. 522 minus my broker commission 2 CZK = 520, what is +- 518 the price, where i bought stock.

2) price giving me small punches , but this Friday will be dividend payed (every single year before it, price go up before the dividend day), so it must go up. One extra big sell put down price to 507? What is wrong?!

3) I was prepared to sell first time, but its’ Monday 8. 9. 2008, and this is the first day, which price going up , everything look perfect (that the down-trend is over and beginning the up-trend). What a mistake. New down-trend begin and I’m selling today at the price 488 (-6% profit ).

(graph is from the Fio e-broker on-line platform)

Conclusion:

1) Hope is killer, be a robot . In the stocking speculation isn’t place for emotion.

2) If is trendline crossed, sell, SELL and fucking SELL!!! Uff.

3) One big sell may put price -2% down (absolute wow).

But I’m happy today. My position is closed, I will sleep freely without any nightmares , what will do stocks tomorrow.

How i analyzed my situation in 488 :

Before I sell at 488 CZK i analyzed my situation as the my mistake (that i not sell at 522) with two ends:

1) I may wait and  hold to the time , when the price will go up again to the 518 (my buy price) and up. If is this only some usual fluctuation. BAATELEC is good stock, big stable telecommunication (not some bank…) firm with P/E 15 and extra big dividends. It may go to my buy position to the end of year. But if this is the beginning of market crash (and every other stocks in the CR market falling today -6%, because USA selling it hard) i may wait forever…

2) I may sell now with loss and immediately when this stock begin new trend buy it again. And "play" like real speculator.

It looking, that market crashing , so 1) is bad, i must sell and do 2). I will not wait 5 years in pains and pray to go my stock up. I need some practice, to trade. So the best alternative was sell. And when i will recognize the next strong uptrend i will buy again. This very strong down-trend is excellent opportunity to buy , which may not repeat in next few years! So i will not wait and pray. I did, what was right for me as the speculator and for my money!

Today, I’m thinking about, what will indicate me the fastest way buy or sell signal .

I experimented with MACD seriously, and this indicator giving me right opposite signals , than i need. Last time i bought just in the oversold peek ! MACD indicate me the buy signal exactly in the place which was the best for sell . Funny, but very unprofitable way, how to trade stocks .

What i need is something without delay . "Something" without delay is trendlines .

Second problem is, that market moving very strongly for whole day and the best way, how to enter or exit it, is watch it for whole day , and this will consume a lot of time .

If you are holding some long-term position, will you relax somewhere in the nature, or watch your position at least every single hour… Maybe some small PDA device with stock SW monitor (my FIO broker support it) it’s the way…

Market is so fast in this days. Or at least if market falling, it is SO QUICK. It’s amazing. If market go up, it’s 1 % per day and if falling it’s 3-10 % per day. When market falling it is big opportunity to invest! When I’m in the long position only real-time monitoring if price cross or not cross (sell signal) my trendline will give me the best profit and i will exit in the higher price.

Now I trade over Fio broker on Czech republic stock exchange KOBOS and RMS market.

RT stock commission is 0.802% for KOBOS. Liquidity is very good (market makers doing his job)! Spread is under 1% (0.3% right now for BAATELEC).

Fio is good broker, with the bank account in Czech Republic (Fio is big corporation, it’s broker, something like bank too, and some other companies…). I may almost instantly (in few seconds) wire transfer my money (without fee!) from the broker account to my FIO business account and use it in my business. It’s the best advantage of this broker. I’m storing almost all my free money invested in the stocks (It’s the only one chance, how to not spend it on some bullshits as is food or DVDs ). When it’s time to take it back, i may do it instantly and not wait for some long wire transfer… It’s good for my business.

I trade this stocks:

• O2 (telecommunication) – BAATELEC – Good dividends (8-10%), almost all my money are right here .
• ČEZ (power) – BAACEZ – The biggest company in czech market. Small dividends, clear game, almost ideal to back-testing.
• and focusing right now on UNIPETROL (oil) – BAAUNIPE (P/E for 2007 was 15, now 2008/1 it’s insane 400+ , something bad happened, i will not trade this company if P/E will be over 20)